VaultWiki4

**pegasus** · November 11, 2014

Once the campaign launches, we're looking at a timeframe of roughly 2 months to delivery for a public beta on IPS. That number is based on our actual time-to-delivery for XenForo once it was the major development focus in 2013.

**Alfa1** · November 11, 2014

You might find it interesting to know that vbulletin developer Paul M. stated earlier this week that vbulletin management has no real interest in further developing vbulletin 3 or 4 and that there barely is anyone working on vb5. Focus is on vbulletin cloud.
What this means is that the current trend of vbulletin to xenforo conversions is likely going to increase. its still the case that 70% of all conversions away from vbulletin is to xenforo. If we assume that vbulletin had 100k licenses sold (as they claimed), then they now have 79k licenses. The rest has mainly moved to XF already.

For the near future it is likely that 70% or more of people will still choose XenForo over IPS, because IPS4 is in a very basic state. Reminds me of VW4 alpha or gamma1. IPS clearly states that they are happy with the rewrite but the main advantages and new functions will come with next major releases. Various IPB3 admins say they will wait with upgrading until IPS4 is more mature and has more functions. Reception of IPS4 is very mixed.

**pegasus** · November 11, 2014

70% of people choosing XenForo over IPS still leaves 30% of that sample choosing IPS that VaultWiki is currently unable to cater to. Of course there will always be fluctuations back and forth among all 3, and what we want to try to eliminate is this "I don't want to invest in a paid add-on for one platform because I might switch to a different platform in the future" which is a problem for many add-ons.

And with vBulletin themselves losing customers we have felt it on our end. With customers losing faith in vBulletin, we likewise lose some vBulletin customers by extension. vBulletin management has also not helped the add-on market by forbidding the use of the term "vBulletin" in Google ad campaigns.

Thus it is really in our best interest to diversify. According to recent cookie-search info, IPS still holds 10-12% of the market, which can effectively mean 10-12% in growth for us over time, just by increasing VaultWiki's compatibility. And with customers jumping from vBulletin, and 30% of those going to IPS, this number will grow.

Are you saying that we should consider supporting IPS3 first or as well? Or are you saying that we should take a wait-and-see approach? There is usually a crucial timing when it comes to lining up releases like this.

**Alfa1** · November 11, 2014

70% of people choosing XenForo over IPS still leaves 30% of that sample choosing IPS that VaultWiki is currently unable to cater to.

Actually, that is incorrect. While 70% goes from vb to XenForo. Only 4.5% goes from vb to IPS. 5% goes from xf to IPS. So a total of ~10% is towards IPS. A total of 14% is away from IPS, so IPS marketshare is shrinking.

Besides the 70% from vb to XF, there is also 14.5% going from IPS to XF. So of all migrations almost 85% are towards XF.
The rest of the migrations are towards vb. Though obviously those migrations are not permanent.

This does not mean that IPS is not an interesting market. I do think VaultWiki should add support for IPS4. Its good for VW and all customers if there are more people using VW and more license sales funds are coming in. I also think that you should consider other platforms in time. It is not unlikely that other platforms will overtake IPS in the coming year. Once Shawn is back to update his cookie tracker with other forum platforms the data will likely reveal a significant pattern in this respect. Shawn will be back next month.

I added the above information to put things into perspective again. Because these new facts about vbulletin mean that the exodus from vb to xf is likely to strongly increase. XF already has reached 2.5 times the marketshare that IPS has. Before you can add support for IPS4 Gold then XF will have reached 3 times the size of XF. I dont think its a good idea to support IPS3. I suggest to evaluate the situation after IPS4 goes gold and if IPS is still looking good to plan for IPS4 support. In your evaluation also consider the importance of adding those things to the core that will make VW4 feature set and stability much more attractive to XF customers.

I see there are a lot of things planned that will make VW4 very attractive & compelling. I think that the realization of those functions will make a world of difference. Currently the decision of whether or not to upgrade from vw3 to vw4 can go either way because there are things to say for staying on vw3 for a while and also for upgrading. When the planned functions are realized then it will be a no brainer to upgrade to VW4.
And this persuasive difference will translate directly into XF and vb sales, because the same reasons why someone upgrades are also the reasons why someone purchases.

**pegasus** · November 11, 2014

With phpBB now having an actual plugin system (with 3.1 Ascraeus), this is somewhere else we are considering to expand. While it is not a paid forum software, the sheer number of installations (GoDaddy claims over 2 million) suggests that even a small percentage such as 0.1% could be significant for us.

Unfortunately Shawn's cookie tracker, which has been a go-to statistic for many other things, has not really tracked phpBB or other free forums so it's been hard to verify claims like this.

If there have been other or new commercial forums making waves recently, I may have missed something, so please let me know. Would be nice to start doing research now while we are still planning what to do in 4.1.

**Alfa1** · November 12, 2014

There are alternatives to Shawns tracker but the stats from those are to be taken lightly. According to those Burning Board seems to be gaining significant traction fast and eating up IPS. Vanilla is very unclear. MyBB seems to be doing good as well. phpbb indeed has many installations.
Mind that in Shawns tracker the 100% marketshare is divided between vb, xf and ips. Is you add other platforms to the equation then all percentages naturally drop.
Invision's 12%, xenforo's 28% and vb's 60% marketshare are in reality a much lower.

**pegasus** · November 13, 2014

I find this one hard to believe: http://trends.builtwith.com/cms/forum-software
There is no way vBulletin has almost 2x the installations of phpBB.

**Alfa1** · November 13, 2014

Indeed. Builtwith is not reliable, but more something to use for hints.

**alpha** · November 15, 2014

Everbody has his favourite Software - alfa1 loves XF .. I can not wait to get vw4 for ips

I had long Time vb but the way an vb5 is horrible for me
I have my current site in ips and stopped with vb ... Unfortunatley vw4 is for me offline too ;(

**Alfa1** · November 15, 2014

I can understand where you are coming from. I have a full IPS3 suite and was the one who suggested IPS3 support. In fact at least half a dozen of the IPS votes in this poll come from admins that I sent here to vote. (most of them are now on xf btw) IPS3 is very good software.

I was hoping that IPS4 would be a major improvement over IPB3 and was open to the idea of switching to IPS. Unfortunately I find IPS4 to be not much better than vb5. I expect that it will take IPS at least 6 months before people can upgrade to IPS4 without killing their sites activity. We have seen how this goes with vb5. People try it. See their site dying. Then quickly move away to another platform or back to their old version.
It doesn't make sense to add support for IPS4 before admins are using it. Unfortunately it also doesn't make sense to add support for IPB3 when a new major version is around the corner. So there is a catch22 situation.
Mind that this situation is a result of IPS taking 2 years between their announcement of IPS4 and actually showing something. If they would have continued development of IPB3 and only mentioned the upcoming IPS4 a few months ago then there would likely have been a Vaultwiki for IPS3.

**Storyteller** · November 17, 2014

Hi,

Originally Posted by Alfa1

Unfortunately I find IPS4 to be not much better than vb5.

Sorry, I don't want to start a forum software discussion or be rude in anyway but this sound for me more like a bad joke than a serious comparison. So be it as alpha stated everybody has his/her favorite software and I'm personally not able to follow the XF hype. The time will show how it comes and I wait already very much tensely for the XF2 version and I guarantee that there will be also people who will predict the going down of XF.

Also I have a different opinion at the look of a version for IPS4. Maybe waiting to long will IPS customers force to use the limited wiki functions of IP.Pages or integrate Mediawiki&Co. to their website. So I think it's better to have a version for IPS4 as early as possible.

Greetings
Storyteller

**pegasus** · November 17, 2014

Originally Posted by Storyteller

Also I have a different opinion at the look of a version for IPS4. Maybe waiting to long will IPS customers force to use the limited wiki functions of IP.Pages or integrate Mediawiki&Co. to their website. So I think it's better to have a version for IPS4 as early as possible.

This has been my feeling as well.

**alpha** · November 17, 2014

Vw4 would be a great addon for ips, because there is nothing similar - XF is nice but for me to much old fashion forum style ... Who loves this it will be the perfect solution
Tutorials app is nice but it is far away from a wiki or for similar use

**Alfa1** · November 18, 2014

Originally Posted by storyteller

Maybe waiting to long will IPS customers force to use the limited wiki functions of IP.Pages or integrate Mediawiki&Co. to their website. So I think it's better to have a version for IPS4 as early as possible.

IPS wiki function is not comparable to VW. Its no competition. I agree about mediawiki though.

Originally Posted by alpha

Vw4 would be a great addon for ips, because there is nothing similar - XF is nice but for me to much old fashion forum style ... Who loves this it will be the perfect solution
Tutorials app is nice but it is far away from a wiki or for similar use

IPS is obviously the solution for you. I am not saying that you should hop on the XF bandwagon. Regarding the style of XF: its easily replaced for something modern.